Premier League simulation scientifically calculates Arsenal’s chances

Arsenal is still hoping to qualify for the Champions League next season and the numbers have been calculated to assess their chances of doing so. Arsenal's chances of qualifying for the Champions League next season have been scientifically calculated using the Euro Club Index football ranking, which has assessed the percentage of chances of each team to qualify for the first European competition.

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The index is a collaboration between Grace note Sports and Hypercube Business Innovation and ranks all European clubs based on their results in certain competitions during the previous four years. Updated daily, the leaderboard is then used to predict the results of the remaining matches in a season and is run through 100,000 simulations to find the most likely final leaderboard.

The current ranking has Liverpool as the best team in Europe, with Barcelona between the Reds and Manchester City. Manchester United and Chelsea are 10th and 11th respectively, while Arsenal is 14th, two places higher than Tottenham. According to BBC Sport, Arsenal should have an 8.91% chance, which is higher than 7.59% for Sheffield United.

The Spurs, however, would have a 16.24% chance while the Wolves are again slightly higher at 17.34%, although the two played one game more than the Gunners. Then there is a huge leap forward to Manchester United, who is estimated to have a 73.75% chance of qualifying. Chelsea is 80.7% with Leicester with a 94.81% chance of being in the top four, while Liverpool is already guaranteed to play in the Champions League next year.

All of this assumes that Manchester City’s ban on violating financial fair play (FFP) rules resists, although citizens have appealed the decision to the Sports Arbitral Tribunal (CAS). The model sees Arsenal supported to finish eighth, a point under the spurs of his rivals. Elsewhere, Liverpool with a 25 point lead at the top of the table gives them 100% certainty of winning the league and they are supported to finish with 102 points. Norwich, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth are three clubs expected to undergo relegation, with Watford, Brighton, and West Ham all surviving on the downside.

From the championship, Leeds and West Brom are expected to take the automatic promotion places while Fulham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Preston North End are supported to complete the play-offs. Arsenal boss Arteta said earlier this month his top four hopes: "I think the pressure is coming from the start of the season, but when it was December, no one was talking about the League champions.

It was an impossible thing and now everyone is talking like yeah, we have to get to the Champions League. Of course, as Arsenal players, as a club, we have to fight for the Champions League, but we have to go game by game. We have changed a lot in the past two months, let's go game by game, try to beat West Ham first and we will be closer.

This is all we can control because at the moment it is not in our hands. It is in the hands of the opponent. They must fail and we must win games to have a chance." Arsenal defeated the Hammers, 1-0, thanks to the strike by Alexandre Lacazette, although rivals Chelsea, Manchester United and Sheffield United all won the same weekend.

Arteta’s men remained ninth, five points behind United, fifth after playing one game less and eight points from Chelsea, who also played one more game. If the season ends up resuming, Arsenal has a tough list of games to contend with and must face Manchester City, Wolves, Leicester, Spurs, and Liverpool as well as a host of relegation teams in their last 10 top games.

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